My opinion on Trump? To me, Donald Trump is a clown, an idiot and a moron, having such strong prejudices I should not open my mouth about how he is handling the Ukraine affair.
However, I have to admit that I may be wrong sometimes. That is why I will try to write this entry leaving aside my personal opinions and trying to interpret the facts - those that I know at least - in an impartial way and with a cool head.
It turns out that even the most stupid person can make good decisions, there are many successful people with the IQ of a fly, that is a reality.
In my view, Trump has made some excellent decisions, such as disassociating the United States from the WHO, from the Paris Pact and blacklisting several other organizations that have done so much harm.
Neutrality in the United States
Trump's attitude towards the war between Ukraine and Russia is due his campaign promise and has as its antecedent the Monroe Doctrine of 1823.
There was a resurgence of neutralism in 1920 when the United States Senate voted against joining the League of Nations, in 1935 a Neutrality Act was passed. All this was vigorously pushed by the Republican Party.
The United States did not enter the Second World War - which began in 1939 - until December 1941, that is, it left Europe fighting alone against Hitler for almost three years. Even Nazi ideas achieved a certain popularity in that country.
Until they woke up with Pearl Harbor, from then until today the foreign policy of the United States ceased to be neutral and as the power of the country grew, it became increasingly involved in wars and external alliances.
Neutrality without alliances
The tradition of neutrality implies that the country should be closed to the problems of other countries, based especially on the sovereign principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries.
Neutrality includes an autarchic idea of the country, closed in on its own problems and not getting involved in those of other countries.
As you can see, this doctrine of neutrality goes against the idea of alliances and international cooperation.
Both are things that humanity has done throughout history as we know it: treaties of mutual defense and economic cooperation cannot exist in a neutral country. Another thing is neutrality "à la Switzerland" which, although it can take sides, does not intervene in wars abroad. Of course, that is much more theoretical and unreal.
When the United States was isolationist, in the times of the Monroe Doctrine, it was a second or third-rate country. We must not forget when in 1885 they tried to annex Panama and Chile sent the protected cruiser "Esmeralda" there; they had to run away.
That was the price of isolationism, and since that incident they have started to build up the huge fleet they now have and have started to seek alliances rather than shutting themselves in.
The politics of alliances
I don't think it's a coincidence that since the post-war period, when the many economic and military alliances of the United States were consolidated, it became the richest and most powerful country in the world.
The wealth of the United States has skyrocketed as a result of things like the Bretton Woods agreements, the Marshall Plan in Europe, the reconstruction of Japan and South Korea, the Alliance for Progress and the consolidation of military power thanks to the Cold War.
How strong is the United States on its own?
I think that's the million-dollar question. Today they are the richest and most powerful country, but that's mainly due to their alliances. The United States only got richer after the post-war period.
Suppose they isolate themselves now, will they retain the power they have today? I think it's doubtful. Today, against China, a much weaker but corrupt and bold country, they have already lost the war for manufacturing, at least until China collapses.
And when that happens, there will be a huge economic mega-earthquake, it is inevitable, the only way for the United States to survive that is to keep its allies and be able to articulate common policies.
What is Trump trying to do?
I heard analysts saying that the negotiation between Trump and Putin was a revival of the Munich Pact, when Germany, Italy, Great Britain and France agreed to force Czechoslovakia to give up the Sudetenland to avoid war. Czechoslovakia was not invited to that pact either, as Ukraine is not now.
I think that this time there are important differences. The main one is that Trump intends to leave Europe out as well, despite the fact that any agreement reached would need to have European cooperation and approval.
What would happen if Trump reaches any agreement with Putin and the European countries simply send him to hell? Trump has no way to force them, not even with all his armed forces could he do it.
The only thing left for him would be a nuclear attack, because a conventional attack is unfeasible. And here we have another thing: would the US electorate continue to support Trump after something like that?
Donald Trump's real power
Because the United States is not Russia or North Korea and Trump's power is far from being absolute as Putin's is in Russia for example.
If this move goes wrong, the midterm elections could send his majorities to hell. The system in the United States is too complex to be manipulated at the whim of a single person and the Americans cannot bear the punishment with the resignation of the Russians.
Anything he intends to do or achieve, he will need the agreement and cooperation of many people, institutions and countries. Trump has often overestimated himself, that seems to be his weak point, he is convinced that he has a longer tool than the rule shows when measuring himself.
And the fact is that many times conviction is not enough and language does not create reality. When he met with the North Korean guy, he thought he would deal a mortal blow to China and gain a new ally, but the reality was different, disappointing.
When he said he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, I think he said it sincerely, he must have also believed himself capable of that, but he couldn't either. And it wouldn't be strange if this gamble of meeting Putin without inviting Ukraine were as successful as his meeting with Kim Jon Un.
A trap for Russia?
I also heard theory that all this could be a trap to seduce Putin into sitting at a negotiating table and once there, start to squeeze his neck. I don't know, it seems like a crazy idea to me, of course anything can happen in the unknown dimension.
What I think could happen
I see four possible scenarios. The first is that Trump's dreams come true and he manages to arrange with Putin an advantageous deal for the Russians so that they win at the table what they couldn't win in the trenches.
For this to happen, two conditions would need to be met: Ukraine accepts it, accepts the dismantling of its now powerful Armed Forces, and agrees to end its attacks on Russia. The other condition is that Europe accepts all this and stops helping Ukraine militarily.
I see this as the most unlikely of events, especially because of the security danger it implies for other European countries.
Another alternative is that Trump reaches some bases in agreement with Putin but neither Ukraine nor Europe accept them, and they continue fighting as if nothing happened, this time without the help of the United States Government.
We must not forget that Ukraine was fighting without supplies from that country due to bureaucratic problems for several months. This would also imply that European support would be redoubled, and probably from other countries. The cards of military alliances would be shuffled differently.
A third alternative would be that it is indeed a twisted and extraordinarily clever maneuver by Trump to put Russia in a trap and force them to submit. That is something that I also see as very unlikely.
The fourth possibility is that the talks come to nothing and Trump changes his mind and starts to massively support Russia, this time without any red lines or restrictions, to leave them so weakened that it makes Putin's fall more likely.
Anyway, I'm tired of trying to remain impartial and I'm going to tell you what I really believe. In my opinion, this inexplicable attitude of Trump throwing himself into Putin's arms and saving his skin when he is at his weakest moment has a very probable explanation for me.
I think the Russians are blackmailing him. That fits with Putin's style and Trump's style, let's remember that Trump has been on the verge of going to jail several times, he has been accused of sexual abuse more than once, and he is also stupid and reckless.
How could Putin not bring him down when Trump went to Moscow and make a great movie about him in the style of the old and reliable KGB? The guy is a fool and lustful, I think they made him fall like a little boy and that would explain everything-
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